Tag: climate change

Climate Change in Fifty Years

August 2, 2024

While drilling a tooth in my mouth, the dentist asked me if I thought it was warmer in Ottawa now than a decade ago. Once he pulled out the drill from my mouth and my tongue got free to speak, I said yes. I said absolutely; this area is becoming a retirement community with a balmier climate that has superseded the cold winters. We now have longer, warmer summers and shorter, more tolerable winters.

The impact of climate change on winter sports is undeniable. The once long and enjoyable cross-country skiing season has been noticeably shortened. On the other hand, urban walking in winter has improved. With less snow, we can now stroll around town all winter, often with no snow on the ground.

But let me go back to the winter of 1974 when Ottawa’s average January temperature was 12 degrees Fahrenheit. In contrast, Ottawa’s average January temperature in 2024 was 21 degrees Fahrenheit. This is a significant upward move that has been gradual in my memory. The last few years have been mild and quite manageable, wearing light winter jackets.

Another example of the gradual warming is the number of days the Canal has been open for skating over the years. Dubbed the longest skating rink in the world, the Canal opened for skating in 1972 and was open for ninety days; the temperature was so cold that the ice on the Canal was three feet deep, the standard used for safe skating. It was open for twelve days in 2024 and never opened in 2023.

Leaving the dentist’s office, I met my friend, who explained that we have climate change, but he does not believe we have “global warming.” He agreed that climate change is real; this may be the hottest month in Ottawa, with daily temperatures in the nineties. He questions climate science and quotes periods when we have had warming and cooling over the last thousands of years.

He said Wade Davis’s chapter in his just-published book Beneath the Nature of Things provided the best and most balanced description of the climate issue he had ever read. Davis is a Professor of Anthropology at the University of British Columbia. In his essay, he provides a brief history of the climate change movement from its beginning in 1972 at the Copenhagen Conference.

Davis describes the cult-like followers of the climate crisis, including Greta Thunberg. He also mentions Steve Koonin (the science advisor to President Obama) and those who, although agreeing that the planet is in serious trouble embracing the carbon economy, believe technology will help solve the issue. There are also geopolitical issues: the South is asking for reparations; the North has had the time to create the problem while developing its economy and now asks the South to forego development based on the carbon economy. That does not seem fair. 

Davis intersperses his essay with fascinating facts, for example China approving the opening of 180 coal mines yearly and airline companies having 12,000 airplanes on order. These are examples of how these initiatives will increase rather than decrease the carbon economy. Also, 80 % of India has yet to fly, and sooner or later, all these people would want to experience flying, adding to the amount of carbon dioxide in the air.

The answer: Davis believes in setting action plans instead of target reduction plans; to date, the twenty-eight climate conferences have come up with watery plans, sometimes using misleading data, for example when the NATO countries came up with a target of 24% reduction when they had already achieved 12% of it by letting the ex-Soviet satellite countries join NATO.

Reading Davis’s essay made me wonder if I have ever done anything to reduce my carbon footprint. I belong to the group of people who do not feel the urgency of acting on a doomsday scenario that happens in decades. Polls show that although many believe in the danger of global warming, they are unwilling to act on it since it happens in the future.

Our new car is a hybrid EV. Did we get it because it is environmentally better than a carbon-fueled car? No, it was an economic decision: the mileage is much better than in a fully carbon-fueled car. We have not reduceed our travels to visit family and friends by air or automobile. And we have not downsized to save on heating fuel and AC. Should we?

Many factors influence the decisions to reduce our carbon footprint. The first one is to be convinced that the doomsday scenarios are real. But I have not had the experience that would convince me that we are on the threshold of a crisis.

If I travelled in an area with industrial pollution and massive car traffic resulting in hazy weather, I would put higher priority on solving air pollution resulting from the carbon economy. But that is not my recent experience.

Driving from Pittsburgh, PA, to Durham, NC, via West Virginia, we have seen vast expanses of beautiful open space with rolling hills. We have not seen any air pollution. We smelled fresh air. We also flew from Ottawa to Vancouver a few weeks ago and observed the vast lands underneath with no population. There is crowding with car pollution along parts of the East and West coasts, but most of the country in between is empty. So, I am not inclined to believe we have a climate problem based on my experience. I know there has been a gradual warming in the Ottawa area over the last fifty years. Beyond that, I have a minimal understanding of the future.

Climate Change: From X-country Skiing to Urban Walking

February 15, 2024

We have always done x-country skiing in Ottawa for fun and exercise during the winter months. Snow could come as early as December but never later than by Xmas. We have always had up-to-date equipment, and nothing was better than being outdoors in the fresh air on a sunny day. Sometimes, it was cold, but layered clothing did the trick, and when it was frigid, we started skiing uphill to warm up.  

But there has been a massive change in the weather over the last few decades. When we moved to Ottawa in 1971, the temperature never reached zero Fahrenheit in January (in those days, we had the Fahrenheit scale). And we had ten feet of snow that month; I had to shovel snow off the roof to lighten the load. Not anymore!

It was so mild last year that the world’s longest skating rink, the three-mile-long Rideau Canal, did not open in 2023. It was open four days this year, in 2024. Balmy weather created risky skating conditions on the Canal, and the National Capital Commission, the agency maintaining the ice surface, deemed it unsafe for skating.

We had some snow in December, but there has been no precipitation for weeks. A few weeks ago, we started walking on snow-covered paths instead of snowshoeing, which has become difficult because of the lack of fresh snow. The snow on the pathways had become compressed by skiers and walkers. It melted during the days with above-freezing weather and then froze overnight. So, we walked with crampons on our boots to avoid sliding on the icy pathways. But walking on uneven, icy surfaces, even with crampons, is unpleasant. We needed a new plan to go outdoors for fun and exercise.

We discovered the city cleared the sidewalks of snow in urban areas. So, we picked a walk downtown, where we found cleared sidewalks. The plan was to walk for a while and then let serendipity take over by improvising the return route, aiming to visit a coffee shop.

We picked a location on Somerset Street West, parked the car at the Suya Palace African Grill, and walked west on Wellington Street, dodging people on the narrow sidewalk. Tinseltown Christmas Emporium was on our left. Further west, we passed the Ember Hair Retreat and the Crows Nest Barbershop. The Tooth and Nail Brewing Company was across the Les Moulins la Fayette coffee shop at Irving Avenue. On the other side of the street was an LCBO (liquor store) and the Ministry of Coffee (another coffee shop). Next to the Moulin la Fayette, we looked into the windows of the Tokyo Smoke shop (a cannabis store), all of these establishments within two blocks.

Walking and discovering the variety of stores was a refreshing change from walking in our neighborhood, where few people ever walk, and when they do, they walk on the streets because of the lack of sidewalks. Our progress was slow, with our attention focused on the various establishments.

We chose a street parallel to Somerset for our return. The changing character of the old residential area to modern architectural houses and small apartments was striking in design and colors. I took pictures of the evolving residential area. Some people walking by me with young children asked if I was a real estate agent looking for a house.

The area was changing with many renovations demonstrating the area’s attractiveness for living. Unfortunately, I thought the redevelopment would squeeze the small pop-and-mom stores out of existence.

The next day, we decided to pick a quieter area with fewer people on the streets for our walk. We chose to walk along Colonel By Drive, next to the Rideau Canal, which, without skaters, we thought, would be quiet. Instead, we met joggers and cyclists in balmy, above-freezing temperatures.

But Colonel By Drive was so noisy with heavy car traffic that we could not hear each other talking. Like the previous day, we chose a parallel street to return, Echo Drive, bordered by stately and some newly constructed homes. It was quiet with no car traffic, and we enjoyed this older but expensive area, looking at the architectural dwellings.

As we looked at the houses, some Jehovah’s Witnesses approached us, asking how we managed in this complex world. It did not appear they were successful in talking with homeowners on this street, so perhaps signing up people on the road for an interactive Bible course was a good substitute. Although they did not convince us that studying the Bible was our interest, we discussed aspects of our lives in an overcrowded world. After our walk, we ended up in a coffee shop, the Stella Luna Gelato Cafe.

Our Sunday walk took us from Ottawa South, going west on Colonel By Drive to the Bronson Bridge, where we crossed over to Queen Elizabeth Drive. We walked east along the Drive to Lansdowne and checked out the Ottawa Landsdowne Market, open only on Sundays. I have not been in this area for years and was stunned by the massive redevelopment around the stadium. The place reminded me of Granville Island in Vancouver, although on a much smaller scale.

A hundred vendors/farmers within one hundred miles of Ottawa come to this market. We stopped to talk with a vendor selling Kinoko mushrooms, which he grows in his garage, and bought some of these odd-looking “gourmet” mushrooms after he explained how he grows them. And, of course, we had to get some micro-greens from another vendor and buy organic, free-range eggs from a farmer who is a “leader in animal welfare.” Before we loaded up with additional purchases, we decided to walk back to the car, except for a stop at the Happy Goat Coffee shop on Bank Street.

We miss x-country skiing on fresh snow on a sunny day, but urban walking is more than a suitable substitute. It provides exercise outdoors, but more importantly, it is a way to learn about our city, its businesses, its people, and its developments that we do not see or hear about unless we walk around the city.

Head-Scratchers, or How to Get a Balanced View of World News

April 20

What paper or journal do you read and watch to make sure you get a balanced view of what is going on in this world? A friend posed this question to me: he said he was trying to advise his son on what to read/watch. By balanced, he meant views not only on the right but also on the left – he looked for views and opinions describing facts and behavior from the far right to the left liberal woke community, and all others in between.

I told him I get my information on current events from many sources: newspapers, online and paid subscriptions, as well as the internet and television, and radio. I read many newspapers across the political spectrum and could not single out one that is the best or that would provide a balanced viewpoint. But subscription cost is a factor, and I gave up on many first-rate Canadian newspapers charging up to forty dollars a month.

But most newspapers give you ten free articles to read a month, such as the Guardian or the Toronto Star. By accident I noticed an ad for the Washington Post, a liberal newspaper, for an annual subscription for nineteen dollars US and subscribed, not believing that it was a genuine offer. But it was, and I have been receiving the digital copy of the paper ever since at the originally advertised price. In contrast, reading the New York-based “Epoch Times” provides a conservative angle.

The internet and television are other excellent sources of news. Fox News has the reputation of being a right-wing propaganda channel, while CNN has more of a left-wing bias. So between the two, you may get a “balanced” view.

An overarching theme over the past several years has been “climate change”. Whether you believe IPCC reports or follow Steve Koonan’s contrary arguments, it is your choice. Koonin’s name to fame is that he was a scientific advisor to Obama (his book published in 2021, entitled “Unsettled” explains his views). But many people follow their prejudices and if they believe that climate change is a hoax, then Koonin provides support for their beliefs. There are volumes written on this subject and you can read up on both sides of the story, although the bulk of evidence in my readings supports that ‘climate change” is real.

The other major story over the last two years, of course, has been the pandemic. One source of disagreement focused on whether the virus came from China: several studies concluded it did, while others did not. Another controversial subject was whether the World Health Organization announced the pandemic in time or was late, with dire consequences. President Trump’s approach to downplay the virus, in the beginning, was also a source of controversy. And then his continuing approach to downplay the virus-caused catastrophe was further debated. You could listen to Fox News or CNN, to hear conflicting arguments.

And now the major news item is the war in Ukraine. Depending on which newspapers you read or TV channels you listen to, you get various arguments on whether the US is doing the right things. Although most news stories characterize the war as “unprovoked”, the New York Times’s Thomas Friedman quoted George Kennan (expert on Russia in the US) who commented that the expansion of NATO was a mistake when Russia was not a threat and that it triggered Putin’s war in Ukraine. So, who or what do you believe?

I told my friend that besides listening to all the different news sources, my interest is in “head-scratchers”: stories that make you scratch your head and ponder if the news makes sense based on the information provided and my built-up knowledge.

For example, to defend the Odessa region in Ukraine, a consortium of Canadian industry executives wrote to the Canadian Defense Minister that Canada send twenty-four anti-ship Harpoon missile systems to Ukraine: The Royal Canadian Navy has two hundred of them in storage. This recommendation follows Canada’s promise to Ukraine to send lethal weapons. But the Defense Department has yet to respond. What is the holdup? Are Harpoons not functional? Would Canada ever need these weapons to defend its coasts? If there are legitimate reasons for not sending these weapons, then some explanations would be in order. So, I scratch my head.

Another example. While the US, major European countries, and the EU expelled Russian diplomats as a symbol of outrage against the unprovoked war in Ukraine, Canada refused to do so. The Prime Minister said such diplomatic expulsions would lead to retaliation by the Russians that would lead to Canada losing its “eyes and ears” in Moscow. Is that true? Do the other countries not lose their “eyes and ears” as well, but do not consider it important? But is intelligence gathered only by people on the ground? Do we not have cyber intelligence? And why do we think that while all the other major countries of the Western alliance can do without people on the ground in Moscow, Canada cannot? The scenario makes little sense to me. So, I scratch my head.

What is also incomprehensible to me is that the Deputy Prime Minister and who is also the Finance Minister of Canada has Ukrainian ancestry and has been vocal about assisting the Ukrainians. Words have been flowing freely about supporting fully the Ukrainians, and the recent budget had money allocated to helping Ukraine. But instead of words, action is required now and not in a few months that budgetary processes take. In a few months, the war may be over. Another headscratcher.

As our Prime Minister Trudeau said in the 2015 election victory, “Canada is back”. According to John Ivison in a recent column in the National Post, Canada is more “at the back” of the countries providing meaningful and timely help to Ukraine. Canada is the ninth of twelve countries, providing financial and military aid to Ukraine, after Estonia. Are we experiencing bureaucratic malaise? We do not want to antagonize Russia by sending powerful weaponry to Ukraine? And if so, why not? Does that make sense?

My advice to the friend’s son would be to listen and read widely and try to understand events from all points of view. And the understanding will deepen with events that do not seem to make sense.